Independent Party Candidates 2024 Betting Odds
American Independent Party Odds For The 2024 General Election
2020 Presidential Election Update (11/4): Independent parties, including the Libertarian Party and Green Party, performed poorly in the 2020 general election. LP candidate Jo Jorgensen netted about 1.1% of the popular vote, the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins took about 0.2% of the vote, and Kanye West does better with album sales. In total, independent parties claimed about 1.5% of the total electorate in 2020.
By now, if you’re familiar with American politics and political betting, you’re familiar with the two main parties that get all the action: the Democratic Party and the Republican Party (GOP). However, there are many other parties that don’t get as much national traction, but they are still relevant. Most people call any group not affiliated with Democrats or Republicans “Independent,” and that’s what we mean here. In other words, these are third-party candidates. Usually, most Presidential elections have one or two third-party tickets on the ballot.
However, though “Independent” usually just means “neither Democrat nor Republican,” there is a caveat, because there is a real American Independent Party (AIP), which is a far-right “paleoconstitutional” party founded in 1967 and which is mostly defunct, so it’s important not to confuse the two. Remember: An Independent politician is typically not a member of the American Independent Party, and there are no AIP candidates currently running for President in 2024.
That said, there are plenty of Independent candidates that could make a run in 2024, and though offshore election betting sites have yet to list any, a few names are popping up in the mainstream media, which means that odds could soon be popping up online. If you want to wager on politics and are interested in Independent candidate odds, the next few months should provide you with some very interesting storylines – and betting lines!
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What Is The Independent Party?
In reality, there is no “Independent party” as such. In US politics, an Independent politician is one that identifies officially as neither Democrat nor Republican. In this way, members of the Libertarian party can be Independents (like former House Rep and three-time Presidential also-ran Ron Paul of Texas), as can avowed Socialist party members like Bernie Sanders, who ran for President in 2020 as a Democrat though he’s always held political office as an Independent.
When you bet on an Independent party candidate, you are effectively betting on a third-party candidate. This is an important distinction because there is an official American Independent Party that can muddy the water – and your bottom line as a bettor.
What Is The American Independent Party?
The American Independent Party (AIP) is a specific political party, established in 1967. This is a right-wing third party, and it has been effectively irrelevant for most of its time in existence, though it still operates today.
The AIP’s sole watershed moment came in 1968 when the party nominated George Wallace, who ran against Richard M. Nixon (R) and Hubert H. Humphrey (D), taking five states in the general election. But that was the height of the party’s relevancy on the national stage, and the AIP will not factor likely in the 2024 Presidential election.
While you may find many Independent politicians on the betting boards at offshore election gambling sites, you are unlikely to ever find any AIP candidates featured. Again, “Independent party” – for all intents and purposes – simply means “third party.”
Current Betting Odds For 2024 Independent Candidates
Unfortunately, you won’t currently find any independent candidate on the odds boards at the major offshore election betting sites. This is due in large part to such a candidate’s automatic longshot status, but it’s also because most of the third parties have not settled on their nominees as yet.
When they do, you can expect sportsbooks to offer up odds featuring these politicians and activists, and if one catches fire and somehow wins the job of President, you’d probably be able to retire from your job with the massive payout.
Check back here as the November general gets closer to see updated Independent candidate betting odds, as they’ll be posted as soon as they hit the wire.
Potential Independent Candidates 2024
Right now, there are no declared Independent Presidential candidates running for President in 2024. Of course, this is to be expected, as the “Independent party” is a broad label, and most of these third-party candidates will not declare until much later in the race, since they don’t have to worry about the primary cycle. That’s why on primary election odds boards, you will almost never see third-party politicians listed.
As the general election nears, however, there are a few candidates that could get some press, which means that they should show up at the best political betting sites in some capacity. The following individuals and politicians seem to have the best odds of declaring a run in some way for the 2024 election:
Bernie Sanders
As an Independent and a “Democratic Socialist,” Bernie Sanders has twice run for the Democratic party nomination in Presidential elections, failing both times (2016, 2020). Sanders has yet to declare his intentions for the 2024 Presidential Election, but considering his advanced age and the fact that fellow Democrat Joe Biden is already in office, a run is not likely in the cards.
Mark Cuban
Mark Cuban is the owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks and always seems to be stewing over a potential Presidential run. There is not much of a chance that he’d run as a member of the GOP due to the current influence of his rival Donald J. Trump. Cuban could declare as a Democrat, of course, but there is a strong chance that he would register as a third-party candidate so that he didn’t have to face off in the primaries against Trump or Biden.
Other Potential Third-Party Candidates
The list of potential third-party Presidential candidates is as long as the list of existing third parties in the US. However, some of the more prominent third parties and their most popular candidates are listed below, though each would be a longshot to even be included on the betting boards, much less the November ballot.
- Constitution Party – TBA
- Green Party – TBA
- Libertarian Party – TBA
- Reform Party – TBA
- Socialist Party USA – TBA