Who’s in, who’s out: Democrats try to keep their 2020 odds alive ahead of 3rd debate

For the second Democratic debate last month in Detroit, Michigan, 20 candidates took the stage over the course of two nights. The third Democratic debate next month may only have half of that.

To qualify for the third debate, candidates must reach 2% in four national or early-state polls and must have 130,000 unique donors with 400 donors in 20 different states before the August 28 deadline.

As of right now, only nine candidates have made the cut for the Houston debate on September 12:

1. Former Vice President Joe Biden (+250 chance of winning Democratic nomination, via Bovada)
2. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (+300)
3. Sen. Kamala Harris (+500)
4. Sen. Bernie Sanders (+650)
5. South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (+800)
6. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (+1600)
7. Sen. Cory Booker (+3000)
8. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (+5000)
9. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (+8000)

With two weeks until the deadline, a few more candidates have a chance to meet the qualification requirements.

Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro (+5000) has already met the donor requirement and only needs to hit 2% in one more poll. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (+2500), who is currently on active duty training for the National Guard, has also reached the donor mark, but only has 2% support in one poll.

Activist Tom Steyer (+10000) did not enter the race until early July but has already surpassed 130,000 donors. Steyer only needs to 2% in one more poll to make the third debate.

If Castro, Gabbard, and Steyer all make the debate, a 12-candidate field would leave out many notable names.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (+15000) is a longshot possibility to make the cut, having earned 2% in one qualifying poll and needing less than 30,000 donors to reach the threshold.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (+10000) and author Marianne Williamson (+10000) have over 100,000 donors each but have not met 2% in any qualifying polls. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (+10000) has 2% in one qualifying poll, but his 13,000 donors are nowhere near the requirement.

Luckily for candidates that might miss the third debate, the DNC announced that polls used for the third debate will count for qualification in the fourth debate in October. This means it is possible that a candidate that misses the third debate could still make the fourth debate and keep their presidential hopes alive.

On the other hand, candidates that do not qualify for the third debate may call their campaign quits, similar to Rep. Eric Swalwell after it became apparent that he would not make the second debate.

The third debate will be September 12 and 13, assuming more than 10 candidates qualify, at Texas Southern University in Houston, Texas. The event will be aired on ABC, ABC News Live, and Univision.

For a comparison of all the candidates’ odds of earning the Democratic nomination, a list is provided below.

2020 Democratic nomination odds

Via Bovada

• Joe Biden +250
• Elizabeth Warren +300
• Kamala Harris +500
• Bernie Sanders +650
• Pete Buttigieg +800
• Andrew Yang +1600
• Tulsi Gabbard +2500
• Cory Booker +3000
• Beto O’Rourke +5000
• Julián Castro +5000
• Amy Klobuchar +8000
• Tom Steyer +10000
• Bill de Blasio +10000
• Jay Inslee +10000
• John Delaney +10000
• John Hickenlooper +10000
• Marianne Williamson +10000
• Michael Bennet +10000
• Tim Ryan +10000
• Kirsten Gillibrand +15000
• Robby Wells +20000