The last week Trump has spent every moment recovering from the leaked tape of a vulgar conversation he had more than a decade ago in which he discussed sexually assaulting women at will. The words he used are considered by many to be unforgivable, and many political pundits and watchdogs are pretty sure the tape’s release has all but handed the presidency over to Clinton. But we are not so sure that is necessarily the results that are playing out.
Both Trump and Clinton are in Florida this week campaigning. The Donald held a rally in Panama City in which a whopping 30,000 supporters enthusiastically showed up. And this is in the Bible Belt folks! If he hasn’t lost the prudes in the Bible Belt, then he’s still got a shot. On the flip side, Clinton held a rally in much more populace Miami, and only about 1000 supporters attended the event. Miami is historically a democratic leaning region, which means that this should be Hillary’s peeps.
Yes, after hearing these reports that Trump support is as strong as ever, we also rubbed our eyes and pinched ourselves to make sure we were awake. Could all the muckity-mucks who spend hours a day on television telling us what to make of the campaign trails of both candidates be so off the mark? Perhaps if we had been watching the betting odds and how they responded to Trump’s scandal, we would not have been so surprised.
At most reputable sites offering political betting odds, Hillary has been the candidate favorite to win the presidency throughout the election cycle. The odds for Trump certainly dipped following the leaked taped conversation, however not the extent that everyone was expecting. Trump’s performance at the second debate helped his numbers come back a little, and the loyalty of his supporters is also feeding a stabilization of his odds to win and the polls. He’s down, but he’s certainly not out although many predicted he would be crushed by this scandal.
Current odds to win the general election have Clinton at -650 and Trump at +400. These odds reflect a widening spread and a stronger positioning for the democrats. However, this spread is indubitably not the gaping chasm that was expected following Trump’s troubles. While we are certain that the majority of Trump’s supporters were horrified by his comments from the scandalous tapes, they seem more horrified by the possibility of Hillary Clinton as president. Without a viable alternative to turn to, apparently his supporters (at least those who are not part of the GOP elite) have chosen to stand by their man.
The next few weeks will determine the potential for Trump to resume his neck and neck position with Clinton. The public is well aware that the democrats have had this damning information on Trump during the entire election cycle, and strategically waited until very near to Election Day to release it. However they may have released it a little too soon for it to do the permanent damage it was intended to do. Both polling numbers and the betting odds indicate that support is still there from the Donald, and it may be enough to get him over this hump. Keep an eye on the odds over the next few weeks and you’ll have the pulse of American voters.
Video
[su_youtube url=”https://youtu.be/C-Rr7CO59HY”]