With Bernie Sanders’ chances of placing first in the Iowa Caucuses steadily increasing over the past two weeks, the U.S. Senator from Vermont may have the second stop in the primary already in the bag.
The opening New Hampshire betting odds released this week, and Sanders is the heavy favorite to win the second state scheduled for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.
Despite being the second state to cast votes, the New Hampshire primary is the first official election since Iowa uses a caucus format. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Democrats’ odds to win the NH primary election.
2020 New Hampshire Primary Odds
Via Bookmaker – 12/20/19
- Bernie Sanders -145
- Pete Buttigieg +255
- Joe Biden +620
- Elizabeth Warren +670
- Andrew Yang +2650
- Amy Klobuchar +2700
- Tulsi Gabbard +4800
- Michael Bloomberg +10000
- Tom Steyer +12500
At -145 ($145 bet wins $100), Sanders’ odds to win New Hampshire are by far the best of any candidate he’s running against in the primary.
When converted to a percentage chance to win, we can see that the oddsmakers believe the Senator has an approximately 59.18% implied probability of winning the second primary state.
To put that in perspective, Sound Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is listed in second and opened with +255 odds ($100 bet wins $255). After converting to an implied probability, Buttigieg has a 28.17% chance to win New Hampshire—less than half of Sanders.
And the gap between Sanders and other Democrats widens even further after Buttigieg.
Former Vice President Joe Biden comes in at the third position with +620 odds, 13.89% chance, and Massachusetts U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren isn’t far behind him at +670 odds, 12.99% chance.
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang comes in fifth at +2650 odds, 3.64% chance, and Minnesota U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar places sixth with +2700 odds, 3.57% chance. Further down the list is Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who opens in seventh place with +4800 odds, 2.04% implied probability.
Yang, Klobuchar, and Gabbard have a good chunk of ground to catch up to the top four in New Hampshire—even more so to nip the heels of Sanders. However, you could label those three candidates as the “dark horses” of the NH primary.
As far as longshots go, Billionaires Michael Bloomberg—+10000 odds, 0.99% chance—and Tom Steyer—+12500 odds, 0.79% chance—both have less a 1% chance to come out on top in New Hampshire.
According to the NH polling average at RealClearPolitics, the aggregate comes close to mirroring the opening betting odds. Here’s a look at the percentage of support each candidate is currently receiving from likely voters.
RCP New Hampshire Polling Average
- Bernie Sanders 19%
- Pete Buttigieg 17.7%
- Joe Biden 14.3%
- Elizabeth Warren 13.3%
- Tulsi Gabbard 5.7%
- Andrew Yang 4.7%
- Tom Steyer 2.7%
- Amy Klobuchar 2.0%
- Michael Bloomberg N/A
A lot can happen before the New Hampshire primary election is held on Tues., Feb. 11, and even though Sanders doesn’t have a huge polling lead compared to his NH betting odds, you have to remember that he won this state in 2016 and losing it next year would require a significant collapse on his part.
Every eventual Democratic nominee since Iowa Caucuses began in 1972 has won either Iowa or New Hampshire, and Sanders has the potential to capture both states as 2019 comes to a close.
However, when looking at the 2020 Democratic nomination odds, Biden is the party favorite at +300 odds, indicating he has a 25% of becoming the eventual nominee.
With strong support in Nevada, South Carolina, and the bulk of Super Tuesday states, Obama’s former VP will need to overcome history since he is not favored to win either of the first two stops in the primary.
There are 45 days to go until the first votes are cast in Iowa, and 53 days until New Hampshire, and it’s still any candidates race to win or lose.
But with the most loyal base of supporters, highest fundraising numbers, and polls trending up, it appears Sanders may be surging at just the right time.