The 2020 Democratic presidential primary is now a two-candidate race between former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
But it may not be much longer before one of the two crosses the finish line.
With Biden (664) holding a delegate lead over Sanders (573) after Super Tuesday and #Joementum on his side, the state-by-state betting odds for the March 10 primaries favor Biden winning all six contests tomorrow.
Biden Favored To Win March 10 Primaries
Six states will hold Democratic primaries on Tuesday, March 10. All eyes are on Michigan, which contains the most significant “Super Tuesday 2” delegate prize (125), followed by Washington (89), Missouri (68), Mississippi (36), Idaho (20) and North Dakota (14).
Biden won 10 of the 14 Super Tuesday states and pulled off upsets in Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Texas. Sanders managed to keep the pledged delegate count close with a convincing win in California.
However, Biden’s betting odds indicate there’s a strong possibility for a clean sweep of the March 10 primaries. If the former VP manages to win all six states on Tuesday, then he may put an end to Sanders’ chances of winning the nomination.
The following are the betting odds for the March 10 Democratic primaries, which also show the percentage chance to win each state based on the implied probability from the 2020 election futures at Bovada sportsbook.
Also included is the average polling margin from the forecast at FiveThirtyEight. Biden is currently polling higher in five of the six March 10 primary states while Sanders holds a half of a percentage point edge in Washington state.
March 10 Primary Betting Odds
Political Futures at Bovada
Idaho Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -245
- Bernie Sanders +180
- Implied probability: Biden 68.22%
- 538 polling average: Biden +1.6% in Idaho
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Idaho Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner
Michigan Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -1500
- Bernie Sanders +675
- Implied probability: Biden 90.81%
- 538 polling average: Biden +17.0% in Michigan
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner
Mississippi Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -10000
- Bernie Sander +1400
- Implied probability: Biden 97.18%
- 538 polling average: Biden +44.4% in Mississippi
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Mississippi Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner
Missouri Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -3000
- Bernie Sanders +900
- Implied probability: Biden 94.07%
- 538 polling average: Biden +19.1% in Missouri
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Missouri Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner
North Dakota Democratic Caucus Odds
- Joe Biden -400
- Bernie Sanders +200
- Implied probability: Biden 76.77%
- 538 polling average: Biden +5.6% in North Dakota
*The candidate receiving the greatest number of state convention delegates in the 2020 North Dakota Democratic Caucuses will be declared the winner
Washington Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -240
- Bernie Sanders +175
- Implied probability: Biden 67.17%
- 538 polling average: Sanders +0.5% in Washington state
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Washington Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner
Will Joe Biden Win The Nomination?
The 2020 Democratic nominee betting odds have drastically shifted in favor of Joe Biden following his big wins from Super Tuesday.
Biden is now listed at -800 (or 1/8) odds, meaning an $8 wager will win $1 if the former Vice President can hold off Sanders and win the nomination, which has an approximately 81% of happening.
Sanders, on the other hand, is a significant underdog before the March 10 primaries are held. At +650 (or 13/2) odds, a winning $1 bet pays out $6.50 and gives the Vermont senator a 12% implied probability to mount a comeback.
The 2020 Democratic presidential race is not over yet, but Biden has established himself as the clear betting favorite.
Barring any boogaloos, bungles, or potential career-ending mishaps—or new additions to Biden’s best gaffes—the former VP is projected to earn the 1,991 pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination and faceoff against President Donald Trump.
2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds
Political Futures at Bovada
- Joe Biden -800
- Bernie Sanders +650
- Hillary Clinton +2000
- Michelle Obama +5000
- Tulsi Gabbard +20000