A recent announcement that the Cruz and Kasich campaigns have joined forces in an attempt to stop Trump’s acquisition of the required number of delegates to receive the party nomination has ignited a national controversy. Both candidates desire the primary election to reach a second ballot at the convention where they both have a better chance at winning the nomination.
Trump is fighting for the win the Republican nomination on the first ballot, but it is questionable as to whether he will acquire enough delegates to win it in a first-round victory. Trump has dropped the ball in regards to preparing for second or third ballot contests by forgoing or minimally participating in the elected delegate process in many states. It is clear that he lacked a clear understanding of how that portion of the process works and was not organized with a strategy to secure his position with delegates for the convention.
Kasich and Cruz are deciding between them which state primaries each of them will campaign in and go after. Currently, Kasich is bowing out of Indiana and Cruz is stepping back in New Mexico and Oregon. The strategy is that if they are not competing with each other, then they will secure more votes and more effectively compete with Trump.
With Cruz and Kasich not splitting votes in those states, they have a better chance of lessening the gap between them and Trump and obtaining more of the delegates, reducing Trump’s chances at acquiring the 1237 required to win the nomination.
One group that may be strongly affected by this move is online political betting enthusiasts. If Cruz and Kasich agree on which states they will go after ahead of time, it definitely changes the dynamics of the odds that are in place for each state primary, and could dramatically impact the results of who becomes the Republican presidential nominee, and ultimately, who becomes the president of the United States.
A contested convention is very difficult to predict as well, making the job of the oddsmakers riddled with complexity. This definitely adds some risk and sizzle to the 2016 presidential betting lines this year.
Are Cruz and Kasich breaking any rules? Absolutely not. And candidates have been selected as the nominee in second and third ballots in the past. This is how the system is designed to work. If a candidate cannot get a clear majority, then the election reverts to backup plans at a contested convention.
Cruz has very successfully secured delegates for the next step in the process, and his effective and highly organized ground game has paid off, much to the dismay of Donald Trump. While Cruz and Kasich are indeed operating within the rules of the election process, does that make it right?
Trump’s biggest complaint is that the contested convention takes away the will of the people and that even if he doesn’t reach the minimum threshold if he has the most votes, he should be given the nomination. There is some truth to his complaint.
The delegates that participate at the convention can vote their own will in the process, which may or may not represent the will of the majority of individuals from that state. They are not bound to honor the delegate allocation in their states from the first ballot.
While a second or third ballot may not necessarily depict the will of the majority, this process is in place because overall during the primary season, the majority across the nation was not prevalent and didn’t select a candidate to represent them.
No, we may not like someone else casting the vote at a convention, but for a second or third ballot to be necessary, it means that the people did not speak overwhelmingly for a specific candidate. Having the most votes from among a pool of candidates does not always equal having the vote and the confidence of the majority.
If the citizens of the United States did not come together to select a candidate that is backed by the majority of the people, then their voice is rendered ineffective. It is not the route that most prefer, however it is the best backup system that is in place to pick up the pieces of a fragmented primary season.
Trump supporters agree with him in that he should receive the nomination if he has the most votes. Anti-Trumpers argue that delegate acquisition results that is less than 1237 is not the majority and should not automatically receive the nomination. What do you think? Cruz and Kasich may have a great strategy in place here, but is it the right thing to do? Tell us what you think.