Never mind the Iowa Caucus disaster, here’s Bernie Sanders’ odds of becoming the Democratic nominee.
And make no mistake: The political betting sites are feelin’ the Bern more now than they ever have before—and no other Democrat candidate even comes close.
Sanders’ odds of winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination have not only risen this week, but the Vermont Senator now has a massive gap between his chances and the next closest contender, according to the updated political futures at Bovada Sportsbook. Here’s a look at the current Democrat nominee futures:
2020 Democratic Nominee Odds
Via Political Futures at Bovada
- Bernie Sanders +140
- Michael Bloomberg +375
- Pete Buttigieg +450
- Joe Biden +500
- Elizabeth Warren +1200
- Hillary Clinton +2000
- Andrew Yang +2800
- Amy Klobuchar +6600
- Michelle Obama +10000
- Tom Steyer +15000
- Tulsi Gabbard +20000
- Deval Patrick +25000
- Michael Bennet +25000
Bernie Sanders’ Nominee Chances
At +140 odds ($100 bet wins $140), Sanders has the best chance to win the party’s nomination with a 41.67% implied probability.
While it may not seem like much of an increase from the +160 odds, 38.46% chance, the Vermont Senator held before the Iowa Democratic Caucuses were held on Monday, the bigger takeaway is what’s happened to the rest of the field.
Does any other Democrat have a chance?
Former Vice President Joe Biden was listed narrowly behind Sanders at the start of the week but has since plummeted following his lackluster support in the first primary state.
Biden previously had +185 odds, 35.09% chance, before caucusgoers went to cast their votes. Even though the full results aren’t yet known, it highly likely that Biden will finish fourth and receive zero of the state’s 41 delegates—in a nutshell: a catastrophe for the supposed Democratic frontrunner.
Likewise, Biden’s betting odds for the nomination have fallen from a close second to a weak and distant fourth place at +500, giving him only a 16.67% chance of becoming the nominee—a nearly 20 percent-point free fall in three short days.
Despite not receiving odds to win the Iowa Caucus, being on the ballot, or on any of the ballots in the early primary states, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg now holds the second spot.
The nominee odds for Bloomberg previously were +500, an implied probability of 16.67%, but now show him at +350, 22.22% chance—a distant second compared to the +140 odds, 41.67% chance, for Sanders.
Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who’s currently in a “too-close-to-call” virtual tie with Sanders in Iowa, has seen a significant bump in his nominee odds, jumping from +1400, 6.67% implied probability, to +450, 18.18% chance. Both Buttigieg and Sanders have 11 delegates for the Democratic nomination and currently projected to leave Iowa with the same amount.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren saw a slight uptick after she placed third, receiving five delegates. Warren was listed at +1500 odds, 6.25% chance, but has since increased her nominee chances to +1200 odds, 7.69% probability.
The rest of the 2020 Democratic field all fell short of capturing a delegate for the nomination, and as a result, their odds of winning are now trending downward.
Did The Iowa Caucus Results Affect The Nominee Odds?
To say that the Iowa Democratic Caucuses have been a complete and total disaster would actually be the biggest understatement of the entire 2020 race.
Words cannot express the sheer ineptitude and blatant disregard of anything remotely resembling “integrity” or “transparency” currently on display from the party establishment elites in both the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee.
As more and more Democrat voters wake up to smell the ever-piling myriad of rose-colored roses reeking of corruption being defecated on them by the wealthy establishment for the sole purpose of keeping the status quo, you can bet that Sanders’ chances of winning the nomination will show no signs of slowing.
For the sake of keeping it brief, here are the biggest takeaways from what’s happened in Iowa this week:
- A “technical error” from a newly implemented Iowa Caucus app caused the first results to be delayed an entire day so the IDP could conduct “quality control”
- The first results showed Sanders (who held big leads in the polls just days prior) with the popular vote lead, but Buttigieg with a narrow advantage in the state delegate equivalent count (which decides the delegates for the nominee)
- The IDP and DNC have refused to comment on their reasoning for releasing only a specific portion of the results to start
- Reports surrounding Shadow (the company running the app) surface and show contributions made to the company from the campaigns of Buttigieg and Biden, creating a conflict of interest
- As more results trickled in, the IDP announced it would retroactively adjust some of the previously released results after finding errors in the reporting
- To date, 97% of Iowa precincts are reporting in and show Buttigieg (SDE: 550, 26.2%) clinging to a 0.1 percentage point lead over Sanders (SDE: 547, 26.1%)
- Sanders (44,753) currently holds a 2,500-vote advantage in the popular vote over Buttigieg (42,235)
- DNC chair Tom Perez called for a recanvass today, which was followed by #TomPerezReign trending on Twitter
- IDP chair Troy Price rejected the notion of a recount this afternoon, stating the state party would only do so if the request came from a campaign
- The final results are expected to be released before Thursday is over, but all bets are off at this point