Tomorrow is Super Tuesday, and although the 16 Democratic primary elections aren’t for all the marbles, they will account for about one-third of all delegates up for grabs.
A total of 1,357 delegates from 14 states—plus American Samoa caucuses and the Democrats Abroad primary—will be awarded on Mar. 3 (Democrats Abroad will finish on Mar. 10).
The betting odds for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primary have experienced some substantial adjustments over the past week but for a good reason.
Bernie Sanders’ odds listed him as the heavy favorite to clean up on Super Tuesday last week, with oddsmakers predicting the Vermont senator to win 12 of the 14 states.
However, the odds for Joe Biden on Super Tuesday are now much more favorable following his dominant win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday.
The former Vice President was heavily favored to win South Carolina and finished with 48.4% of the voting results in the fourth early primary state.
Another wild card to factor into the candidates’ chances to win tomorrow came over the weekend when both billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg ended their 2020 campaigns.
With all of that to consider, the oddsmakers and bettors at Bovada sportsbook favor Sanders to win seven states and Biden to win six. Amy Klobuchar is slightly favored to defend her home state of Minnesota on Super Tuesday, but the odds are against Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, and Tulsi Gabbard winning any primaries tomorrow.
Below you’ll find the favorites to win each state on Super Tuesday. Along with their betting odds, the implied probability has been converted to a percentage chance to win based on the Bovada odds after removing the sportsbooks’ vigorish.
UPDATE: Amy Klobuchar ended her 2020 presidential campaign after publishing. The 2020 Super Tuesday odds have since been updated to reflect her exit. Sanders is now favored to win eight states (including Minnesota) to Biden’s six.
Super Tuesday % Chance To Win
Political Futures – Mar. 2, 2020 via Bovada
- Alabama: Joe Biden -5000 | 89%
- Arkansas: Joe Biden -500 | 76%
- California: Bernie Sanders -4000 | 89%
- Colorado: Bernie Sanders -4000 | 89%
- Maine: Bernie Sanders -500 | 76%
- Massachusetts: Bernie Sanders -305 | 68%
- Minnesota: Bernie Sanders -600 | 78%
- North Carolina: Joe Biden -260 | 65%
- Oklahoma: Joe Biden -270 | 66%
- Tennessee: Joe Biden -800 | 81%
- Texas: Bernie Sanders -140 | 53%
- Utah: Bernie Sanders -3000 | 88%
- Vermont: Bernie Sanders -100000 | >99%
- Virginia: Joe Biden -500 | 76%
Super Tuesday Polls
The following Super Tuesday aggregate polling data is based on the FiveThirtyEight 2020 primary forecast.
Keep in mind some states have conducted little to no polls so far in 2020, while others have produced several recent surveys. Because of this, the states with no recent polls will show the most recent results available with the month and year in parentheses.
- Alabama: Joe Biden 36% (Jul 2019)
- Arkansas: Michael Bloomberg 20% (Feb 2020)
- California: Bernie Sanders 33.9%
- Colorado: Bernie Sanders 31.3%
- Maine: Bernie Sanders 27.4%
- Massachusetts: Bernie Sanders 25.9%
- Minnesota: Bernie Sanders 25.6%
- North Carolina: Joe Biden 23.8%
- Oklahoma: Joe Biden 21% (Feb 2020)
- Tennessee: Joe Biden 33% (Jul 2019)
- Texas: Bernie Sanders 29.0%
- Utah: Bernie Sanders 28.0% (Feb 2020)
- Vermont: Bernie Sanders 51% (Feb 2020)
- Virginia: Bernie Sanders 25.2%
Super Tuesday Odds: State-By-State
Here you’ll find the betting board complete with all the remaining candidates’ odds for each state participating in the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primary elections.
Heading into Super Tuesday, Sanders is slightly favored over Biden to win the nomination, according to the most recent Democratic presidential nominee odds, and whoever leads the delegate count after Mar. 3 will likely increase their chances of facing President Donald Trump in the 2020 general election.
Political Futures – Mar. 2, 2020 via Bovada
Alabama Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -5000
- Bernie Sanders +2000
- Michael Bloomberg +3000
- Elizabeth Warren +10000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Arkansas Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -500
- Bernie Sanders +450
- Michael Bloomberg +1200
- Elizabeth Warren +7500
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
California Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -4000
- Joe Biden +1000
- Elizabeth Warren +10000
- Michael Bloomberg +10000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 California Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Colorado Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -4000
- Joe Biden +1000
- Elizabeth Warren +10000
- Michael Bloomberg +10000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Colorado Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Maine Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -500
- Joe Biden +425
- Michael Bloomberg +2000
- Elizabeth Warren +3000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Massachusetts Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -305
- Elizabeth Warren +325
- Joe Biden +1500
- Michael Bloomberg +10000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Minnesota Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -600
- Joe Biden +350
- Elizabeth Warren +10000
- Michael Bloomberg +10000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
North Carolina Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -260
- Bernie Sanders +220
- Michael Bloomberg +5000
- Elizabeth Warren +12500
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Oklahoma Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -270
- Bernie Sanders +255
- Michael Bloomberg +1100
- Elizabeth Warren +12500
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Tennessee Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -800
- Bernie Sanders +550
- Michael Bloomberg +2000
- Elizabeth Warren +12500
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Texas Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -140
- Joe Biden +115
- Michael Bloomberg +10000
- Elizabeth Warren +12500
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Texas Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Utah Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -3000
- Joe Biden +1500
- Michael Bloomberg +2000
- Elizabeth Warren +5000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Utah Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner
Vermont Democratic Primary Odds
- Bernie Sanders -100000
- Elizabeth Warren +10000
- Joe Biden +10000
- Michael Bloomberg +10000
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary shall be determined the winner
Virginia Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -500
- Bernie Sanders +375
- Michael Bloomberg +3000
- Elizabeth Warren +12500
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary shall be considered the winner