Trump’s Betting Odds And His Path To 270
With just over a month remaining in the 2024 Presidential election cycle, the focus is shifting to states where undecided voters could decide who captures the White House in November.
Today, we take a look at where each state stands just 22 days out from election day and attempt to project the electoral college tallies of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris if everything turns out as suggested.
States That Have Voted Democrat Since 2020
- California – 54
- New York – 28
- Illinois – 19
- New Jersey – 14
- Washington – 12
- Massachusetts – 11
- Maryland – 10
- Minnesota – 10
- Oregon – 8
- Connecticut – 7
- Rhode Island – 4
- Hawaii – 4
- Maine – 4
- Vermont – 3
- Delaware – 3
- Washington, D.C. – 3
- Total = 194
Assuming these 15 states and Washington, D.C., will vote for Harris, a tally of 194 can be expected from these blue strongholds. None of these regions appear to be in danger of flipping red in 2024.
2024 States That Will Vote For Harris
- New Mexico – 5
- Colorado – 10
- New Hampshire – 4
- Virginia – 13
- Hypothetical Total = 218
If Harris wins the above blue-leaning states in 2024, her presumed total will rise to 226 votes, 44 shy of the total required to win.
States That Have Voted Republican Since 2020
- Texas – 40
- Tennessee – 11
- Missouri – 10
- Alabama – 9
- South Carolina – 9
- Kentucky – 8
- Louisiana – 8
- Oklahoma – 7
- Mississippi – 6
- Arkansas – 6
- Utah – 6
- Kansas – 6
- Idaho – 4
- Montana – 4
- West Virginia – 4
- Nebraska – 4
- Wyoming – 3
- South Dakota – 3
- North Dakota – 3
- Alaska – 3
- Total = 154
The GOP can feel secure that these traditional red states will show up for Trump in November and deliver their support to the Republican Party. If this becomes reality, 154 votes will go Trump’s way.
States That Will Carry Trump In 2024
- Iowa – 6
- Indiana – 11
- Ohio – 17
- Florida – 30
- Hypothetical Total = 218
Both Trump’s and Harris’ hypothetical totals place them with a potential for 218 electoral college votes before tallying up regions that are currently undecided.
States That Are Toss Ups For 2024
- Pennsylvania – 19
- North Carolina – 16
- Georgia – 16
- Michigan – 15
- Wisconsin – 10
- Arizona – 11
- Nevada – 5
The winner of the 2024 Presidential election will come down to the seven states listed above. The odds for betting on the Presidential candidates are listed for each of these states below.
Pennsylvania Electoral College Odds
- Democrats -130
- Republicans +100
Michigan
- Democrats -200
- Republicans +160
Wisconsin
- Democrats -150
- Republicans +120
Nevada
- Democrats -130
- Republicans EVEN
Harris appears to be a sure winner in Michigan and Wisconsin, and she holds a slim edge over Trump in Pennsylvania and Nevada. If these states carry the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris will total out at 275 and become the next President of the United States.
North Carolina Presidential Odds
- Republicans -165
- Democrats +135
Georgia
- Republicans -225
- Democrats +185
Arizona
- Democrats +175
- Republicans -215
The Republicans and Trump hold solid leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. The support of these three states would give Trump a potential total of 261 votes.